Sunday, June 27, 2010

Osborne's 2010 "austerity budget"

Hat tip Andy for this on Osborne's "austerity budget".

My own feeling is that it is ridiculous to ring-fence NHS spending, giving the huge real increases there have been in that department in the last few years. Why single out one lot of waste for special privileges? This is not to say that an identical across the board departmental % cut is the only way to go, but that's where I would have started.

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IFS reaction to the Budget
BBC Comment
Stephanie Flanders
Wednesday, 23 June 2010

So far the most striking figure from the IFS post-mortem briefing is this: applying the planned squeeze in public spending evenly across departments would require an average cut of 14% in real terms by 2015-16. The only reason we are talking about 25% cuts for most departments is the decision to protect the NHS. ...

According to the IFS, unprotected departments like the Home Office and environment could have their budgets cut by as much as a third, if the NHS and overseas aid budgets are protected from real cuts, and defence and education are cut by less than others, as indicated by the chancellor.

The think tank calculates that this real cut for every other department would fall to 25%, if the spending review could identify another £13bn to cut from the benefit bill. The total benefit bill is £270bn, but that includes the basic state pension and local authority-financed expenditure. There is about £154bn that could plausibly be cut.

Saturday, June 19, 2010

One State Solution - Haaretz

Surprising and thought provoking article in Haaretz arguing that the one state solution's time has come:

"Strenger than Fiction / Israel should consider a one-state solution - it might soon be its only option

In a recent op-ed, Moshe Arens suggested that Israel seriously consider the option of a single state west of the Jordan, in which Palestinians be granted full citizenship.

The one-state solution is advocated by a number of Palestinian intellectuals and is becoming rather popular within the European left. Their reason is generally that the one-state solution would give more justice to the Palestinians - this position is mostly seen as anti-Israeli. Israel’s extreme right favors holding onto the greater land of Israel, generally on theological grounds.

Arens raises his idea from a different standpoint, because he is a secular liberal who indeed believes in full equality for Israel’s Arabs. Even though I have for years argued that the one-state solution is not feasible, Aren's idea needs to be explored - at least as a thought experiment - because it may well be that the window of opportunity for the two-state solution is about to close. So far no Israeli government has succeeded in implementing it; Palestinians are beginning to reject it, and Israel may not be able to uproot more than one hundred thousand settlers.

[...]

Arens’ idea raises a real challenge for Israel: It would, for the first time, have to truly face the task of radically revising its political system and culture and to think carefully about how ethnicities, religions and worldviews can truly live side by side with each other instead of struggling for cultural hegemony.

One consequence of Arens’ idea is that the state would have to sever its ties to all religious institutions, and would have to become completely secular, along the French or U.S. model. Both Jews and Muslims would have to accept that religion cannot play any role in affairs of the state, and religious institutions would become completely voluntary and communitarian. In order to avoid tensions between the various religious groups, and between religious and secular lifestyles, the Swiss confederative model might be considered. The federal government’s involvement in the canton’s internal affairs would be low to allow for maximal cultural flexibility.

Both Jews and Palestinians would have to be willing to renounce the struggle for hegemony. The political culture would have to be structured in a way that avoids such a struggle. Jews would have to be willing to accept Jabotinsky’s suggestion that the President of the state could be sometimes Jewish and sometimes Arab.

Of course the most attractive feature of the one-state solution is a complete restructuring of the Middle East. Arab rejection of a fully liberal Israel-Palestine would no longer have a case. Of course radical Islamists might continue to object to the presence of non-Muslims, but the majority of Arabs would feel much more comfortable with a bi-national state.

I continue to be skeptical about the one-state solution. I am afraid that it will be very difficult to implement, and it is almost unimaginable that a cohesive society would emerge after a century of bloody conflict, particularly if you consider that even states like Belgium are on the verge of falling apart. Economic inequality, which is very high in Israel today, would increase even further and create huge problems.

Arens’ challenge must be taken seriously, for a number of reasons:

First, we are close to the point at which only the one state solution will be possible.

Second, because we need to face that the culture wars have led to the point where Israel is currently on the verge of falling apart as a country. The events surrounding the refusal of Haredi parents in Immanuel to have their daughters study with Mizrahi girls must be seen as what they are. The Haredi community has staged the imprisonments of these parents into a grand event of martyrdom for the Torah. For them Israel’s legal system simply has no legitimacy.

Paradoxically, not only Ashkenazi Haredim think this way - the Haredi state of mind was made fully explicit by Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, Shas’ spiritual leader, who condemned the High Court of Justice for intervening. He said that the offended Mizrahi parents should not have turned to arka’ot - the term traditionally used by Jews to designate the courts of the gentile countries in which Jews lived. It was seen as a betrayal of Jews by Jews to turn to these courts instead of a rabbinical court. Add to this that some Haredim used terms like the Chelmnitzky pogroms and ‘inquisition’ to describe these events. This rhetoric shows the depth of the chasm between the Haredim and the rest of the country.

De facto, approximately one million Jews - Haredim and part of the settler community - have ceased accepting the authority of the state. Add to this that most of Israel’s 1.5 million Arabs do not identify with the state and you get a society without little cohesion and a state whose legitimacy is question from within and from without.

Given this situation we need to see that Israel will have to rethink its conceptual and legal foundations. Even if the two-state solution would finally be achieved, Israel would do well to apply some of the features of the one-state solution: to become a truly liberal, secular state without ethnic dominance in which subgroups no longer try to impose their way of life on each other. It should seriously consider a confederative structure to defuse its culture wars that are tearing it apart."

Friday, June 18, 2010

Benefit claiments

Interesting post by the blogger, 'Working Class Tory':

"Data for benefits claimants per constituency were released yesterday, here. It's interesting to see where your constituency ranks. It seems to be the case that if the number of benefits claimants is in excess of 3,000, it's very unlikely to be a Tory seat, with perhaps one or two exceptions.

In light of that, perhaps it's not so surprising that Hampstead and Kilburn, Hammersith and Westminster North did not go blue, as their number was closer to 3,500."


In a way it shows that Conservatives more than Labour have a self-preserving incentive to keep both unemployment and welfare dependency down.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Bloody Sunday

Here's Peter Hitchens on the Bloody Sunday inquiry report:

"I have said for years that the British government should apologise for Bloody Sunday. This is for firmly Unionist reasons. Londonderry ( as I still call it) is in my view a British city ( and certainly felt like one to me when I at last managed to go there a few years back). I've nothing against those who wish to call it 'Derry'(or 'Doire'), provided they don't mind me calling it Londonderry. But I think the BBC, being a British institution, should stick with 'Londonderry' - as should ministers in the British government. I'll relax my view of this if ever I hear an Irish politician , or RTE, the Republic's equivalent of the BBC, refer to the city as 'Londonderry' in a gesture to its Protestant inhabitants.

But the main point of this is simple. If such a thing had happened to Her Majesty's peaceful subjects in Portsmouth, Cardiff, Hull, Liverpool or Aberdeen, the government would - and should - have fallen the next day.

And it remains shameful that Edward Heath and his Cabinet did not resign the morning after this dreadful blunder, which was of course perpetrated by soldiers - but by soldiers whose orders and deployment originated in London, and in the not-very-bright policies of the day towards Ireland.

So I am glad of the apology, far too long delayed. I think David Cameron delivered it with proper gravity and without any attempt to qualify it. This was right.

But I am annoyed by the report, which seems to me to have an entirely political purpose and may not be a wholly accurate account of events. How can we know, in such detail, so long afterwards? It is interesting to examine one's memory, when events which took place in one's own lifetime gradually solidify into historical events. I can remember hearing the news of the shootings on the Sunday evening on the radio (as I generally heard news in those days of scarce TVs and infrequent bulletins) that freezing cold weekend in York, and the angry demonstration we students mounted the following day, its indignation for once entirely justified. But if you asked me for details of either day, instead of brief and probably misleading scraps of memory, I would be unable to help you.

In fact a couple of years ago, on an assignment in Moscow, I travelled by metro to the district where I had lived for a year in 1992. When I arrived at the familiar station, I made for the steps by which I was sure I had always exited, and walked as if to go to my block of flats. I was completely wrong. The exit was wrong. My direction was wrong. I walked the wrong way. in increasing bafflement, for half a mile because I was so sure I was right. Reluctantly, I had to accept that my memory, for all its insistent clarity, was misleading, to put it mildly. And that was a distance in time of about 16 years, less than half the period which separates us all from Bloody Sunday.

I'll have more to say about this later, but if we are to go on a voyage of rediscovery through the Northern Ireland Morass, I think we need to be a good deal more even-handed about what we study.

And by the way, the closed-minded people who always write in and say that I am some kind of patsy for the 'Loyalist' scum are completely wrong. I loathe the violent racketeers of the 'Loyalist' side just as much as I loathe the IRA. My case is and remains that the compromise which kept Northern Ireland British could have been reformed peacefully, and under British rule - and that Direct Rule was actually rather a good thing, which could and should have been made permanent. It was those who insisted on the 'Irish Dimension' who turned this from a reasonable campaign for reform into a struggle over sovereignty which is not yet over. And it was those people who also marginalised the decent and the lawful, and brought into power the bloodstained and the lawless.

If we ever conducted a proper inquiry into the whole Northern Ireland shambles, from 1969 to now, the Irish Republican Army and its front men and women would be the principal culprits, making trouble where there was none, pretending to be what they were not, always preferring hate and violence to peaceful compromise."

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Nick Clegg - polyglot

Nick Clegg apparently speaks German, French, Spanish and Dutch - his mother's Dutch, and his wife Spanish.

Here's an example of the Spanish, and here the Dutch. If anyone finds an example of him speaking German or French, lemme know.

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Michael Gove - 'The Heroes of Balsall Heath'

Anyone else on the blog heard about the 'Heroes of Balsall Heath"? Michael Gove mentioned it as an example of the power of civic action. Here's the quote:

"If you have an institution like the group of people who transformed Balsall Heath in Birmingham, a group of citizen volunteers, who've taken an area that was polluted by prostitution, that was scarred by drug addiction, that faced underdevelopment and deprivation - and those individuals, by their own efforts, working in partnership with Birmingham Council - they've transformed Balsall Heath for the better - now, I'm talking about that part of Birmingham on the Radio 4 Today programme for the first time, because Today, and the press generally, always tend to look at Government initiatives, they always tend to say 'how can we spend more State money ?'. What they rarely do is celebrate the power of civil society to transform our lives. Now I believe that Government, if we have a change of government, can do that, and the heroes of Balsall Heath can have their achievement celebrated on the Today programme, and the heroines of Birkenshaw and Gomersall , the mums and dads who want a transformed education system, they too can have their moment instead of being marginalised".

Here's a bit more info on the campaign he mentions:

"At the height of the picket, Amin had 500 people on the streets every night, armed with notebooks to take down the numberplates of kerbcrawlers and posters which warned, 'Your wife will get to hear of this.'

'The Muslim community had the will-power, the determination and the cohesion to act,' says Ward. The Christian community was split over the need to be compassionate towards the prostitutes' problems, an approach which baffles and infuriates the Muslims. As a result, Ward was the only clergyman to give the campaign his backing.

Meanwhile, the police were watching the pickets with concern. 'We were afraid of a backlash from the pimps,' says community liaison officer Sergeant Steven Bruton. 'We thought any day one might wind down his car window and blast away at the pickets with a gun. We were afraid the prostitutes might get assaulted. And we were afraid there might be riots. When it first started, the picket attracted a lot of people from all over. We thought the hotheads might have a go.'

In spite of a few allegations of assault, threats from the pimps and accusations from a group of liberal feminists, these fears did not materialize. 'The people involved were decent, God-fearing people,' explains Bruton."


This campaign also inspired one in Bradford a year later:

" On the edge of Bradford's red-light district, in a dimly lit Indian restaurant, sit two scared prostitutes. They shake, smoke and drink coffee. Sally and Fran have just been chased from their regular spot on Lumb Lane, north of the city centre, by a car of masked youths which hurtled towards them, almost knocking them from the pavement. The driver warned them to "stay away"...

But while the action has ostensibly been modelled on a similar campaign in Birmingham's Balsall Heath, where prostitution was beaten by peaceful picketing, the scenes here are more menacing. Punters have been stoned and prostitutes have been picked up and physically carried from the area. Some "vigilantes" have been threatened by pimps waving sawn-off shotguns.

The self-appointed guardians retaliated by hospitalising a prostitute's boyfriend who had spoken out on local TV. ("Let's just say he was a bit lippy, so a few of us did him over," grins an Asian youth.) Last week there was a firebomb attack on a cafe used by local prostitutes. Police are struggling to control all sides, but pleasing none...
From 8pm each evening, up to 100 local vigilantes from a pool of 500 are out in force and stay into the early hours. Most noticeable are the youths. They patrol in boisterous packs, clad in baggy jeans, big trainers and bomber jackets, often wearing bandanas as masks.

Typical of these is Abdul - not his real name - a bright-eyed, highly charged A-level student. "We've had guns, baseball bats and knives put to our heads by pimps," he says. "Our mums can't sleep at night - mums have that sort of mentality, they're weaker-hearted - but someone has to do it. The vice squad won't ever stop prostitution because they'd do themselves out of a job. In six weeks we've turned Lumb Lane from the M1 into a minor road. Now we're guarding our territory. We'll stay out until everyone knows this is no red-light district any more."...

So far, only one vigilante has been arrested for breach of the peace. "We're desperately trying not to make martyrs out of this. The last thing we need is a folk hero."


So finally, to my question, I wondered if other impdecers agree with this blogger "that While the urge of the Muslims to clean up their streets (although, as one prostitute remarked, 'we were here first') was understandable, there can be no doubt that a similar campaign by white Christians would have encountered both the full weight of the law and the full weight of liberal opinion, amplified in the liberal media feedback loop to one long howl of outrage."

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Israel and the Gaza aid flotilla

Good summary of the legal situation surrounding the aid flotilla attack.

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Is Israel's blockade legal?
BBC Today Program
01/06/2010

Maritime lawyer Douglas Guilfoyle, Lecturer in Law at UCL, was asked on the Today Programme about the legality or otherwise of Israel's actions over the blockade of ships carrying aid into Gaza, involving landing commandos on ships in international waters. I summarise his response here, but it's only 3'31", so you might as well go listen yourself:

Legality of blockade - Guilfoyle says:
  • A naval blockade does have a legal status, it is a recognised instrument of warfare
  • However it should not be implemented or continued 'if the damage to the civilian population is going to be excessive in relation to the military advantage'.
Evan Davies, the interviewer, then asked 'if the blockade itself were legal, is what Israel did yesterday legal?'

Guilfoyle's answer: Yes, there's a document called the San Remo Manual on International Law Applicable to Armed Conflicts at Sea, 12 June 1994 about enforcing blockade on high seas, which permits what Israel did, as long as the blockade is legal. The controversy is about whether insufficient aid is getting through, thus whether the blockade is legal in the first place

Davis then asked about the proportionality of the Israeli response.

Guilfoyle's answer: A legal blockade give you right to intercept vessel, but actions must be necessary & proportionate. There are two separate issues:

1. Is the act of putting soliders on a boat to try to turn it round proportionate?
Guilfoyle gave the answer 'normally it would be'.

2. Was the degree of force used proportionate?
Guilfoyle says the answer to this hinges on whether there was a deliberate use of force to stop vessel, or whether it was a case of actual or mistaken self-defence. This latter is Israel's (and to some extent the protestors') version of events. Once you invoke self-defence, it's a different legal defence. Even with this defence the use of force could be excessive and thus unlawful, but this is no longer a question about the law of blockade, but one about the law of self-defence.